How Long Can the MJO be Predicted During the Combined Phases of ENSO and QBO?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The predictability limit of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in El Niño and La Niña boreal winters (November‐February) is investigated using observational data historical run outputs CMIP models. MJO computed by nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents approach for various indices obtained from bandpass‐filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation, 850‐hPa zonal wind, 200‐hPa wind data. result shows that during enhanced up to 8 days compared winters. Enhanced convection phases 2–4 with persistence propagation leads higher predictability, as those highest (lowest) 39 (31) Niña/EQBO (El Niño/EQBO) longer predictability.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1944-8007', '0094-8276']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097752